The Influence of Inflation and Energy Subsidies on the Stability of the Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia (2015-2024)
Kata Kunci:
Exchange rate stability, energy subsidies, fiscal policy, inflation, monetary policyAbstrak
This study examines the determinants of exchange rate stability in Indonesia during the period 2015-2024, focusing on the roles of inflation and energy subsidies. Using a quantitative explanatory approach and multiple linear regression analysis with annual time-series data, this research explores how these two macroeconomic variables influence the volatility of the Indonesian rupiah against the U.S. dollar. The results show that inflation does not significantly affect exchange rate stability, indicating that effective monetary policy by Bank Indonesia has successfully mitigated inflationary pressures on the currency. Meanwhile, energy subsidies are found to have a significant effect on exchange rate stability, implying that fiscal policy related to energy spending plays a crucial role in shaping the rupiah’s movement. Collectively, inflation and energy subsidies explain 49.1% of the variation in exchange rate stability. These findings highlight the importance of harmonizing fiscal and monetary policies to maintain macroeconomic resilience and strengthen the credibility of Indonesia’s exchange rate management.
Referensi
Alawiyah, T., Haryadi, H., & Vyn Amzar, Y. (2019). Pengaruh inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar terhadap nilai tukar rupiah dengan pendekatan model struktural VAR. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 7(1), 51–60. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v7i1.8339
Auliasah, R., Rasmita, L., Ramadhani, R. T., Handayani, T., Sari, D. J., & Ghazali, S. (n.d.). PERAN BANK SENTRAL DALAM MENGELOLA INFLASI DAN NILAI TUKAR DI INDONESIA.
Bank Indonesia. (2016). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2016. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/LPI2016-web.pdf
Bank Indonesia. (2017). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2017. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/LPI2017.pdf
Cabral, R., Carneiro, F. G., & Mollick, A. V. (2020). Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets. Empirical Economics, 58(2), 605–626. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1478-8
Christian, E., & Constant, L. N. (2017). Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending: Theory and Evidence. International Monetary Fund, 2017(4). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498346528.007
Coulibaly, D., Omgba, L. D., & Raymond, H. (2014). Exchange rate misalignments in energy-exporting countries : Do sovereign wealth funds matter ? 152. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01648618
Divka Avedish, Faqihuddin Tri Wibowo, Nahdiyah Ulul Azmi, Qothrotun Nada, & Sarpini Sarpini. (2024). Peran Nilai Tukar Rupiah Dan Fluktuasi Valuta Asing Terhadap Ketahanan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Dan Penalaran Ilmu Manajemen, 3(1), 223–235. https://doi.org/10.59031/jkpim.v3i1.542
Ganguly, A., & Das, K. (2016). Impacts of Falling Crude Oil Prices and Reduction of Energy Subsidies on the Indian Economy: A CGE Modelling Approach. Vision: The Journal of Business Perspective, 20(4), 345–360. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972262916668741
Glomm, G., Glomm, G., & Jung, J. (2015). A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy. Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2573591
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2020). Basic econometrics (6th ed.) (6th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Hair, J., & Alamer, A. (2022). Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) in second language and education research: Guidelines using an applied example. Research Methods in Applied Linguistics, 1(3).
Ibrahim, M. A., & Kornitasari, Y. (2023). ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, CADANGAN DEVISA, DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR TAHUN 2016-2020. Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies, 2(4), 737–745. https://doi.org/10.21776/jdess.2023.02.4.03
Ige-Gbadeyan, O., & Johannes Swanepoel, M. (2023). Determinants of operational efficiency on the financial health of non-life insurance companies in South Africa. Insurance Markets and Companies, 14(1), 121–135. https://doi.org/10.21511/ins.14(1).2023.11
Iliyasu, J., Abubakar, A. U., & Mamman, S. O. (2024). Energy price reforms, exchange rate devaluation and macroeconomic instability: Evidence from Bayesian VAR identified with sign‐and‐zero restrictions. OPEC Energy Review, 48(4), 308–325. https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12315
IMF. (2013). Energy Subsidy Reform - Lessons and Implications. Policy Papers, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498342391.007
Judijanto, L., Syaiful, M., & Lubis, M. M. (2024). Pengaruh Kebijakan Moneter dan Stabilitas Nilai Tukar terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Sanskara Ekonomi Dan Kewirausahaan, 3(01), 7–15. https://doi.org/10.58812/sek.v3i01
Karimah, Z. N., & Laulita, N. B. (2023). Pengaruh Faktor Ekonomi Makro, Kestabilan Politik dan Harga Minyak Dunia pada Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat. Jurnal Maksipreneur: Manajemen, Koperasi, Dan Entrepreneurship, 13(1), 374. https://doi.org/10.30588/jmp.v13i1.1253
Katnic, I., Katnic, M., Orlandic, M., Radunovic, M., & Mugosa, I. (2024). Understanding the Role of Financial Literacy in Enhancing Economic Stability and Resilience in Montenegro: A Data-Driven Approach. Sustainability, 16(24), 11065. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411065
Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2023). APBN Kita: Kinerja dan Fakta Fiskal 2023.
Koplow, D. (2008). © 2008 International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development The International Institute for Sustainable Development contributes to sustainable development by advancing policy recommendations on international trade and investment. http://www.iisd.org/
Lutfiansyah, W. J., Nikensari, S. I., & Yuniarti, P. (2025). Pengaruh Inflasi dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Nilai Tukar Negara-Negara Regional ASEAN. AKSIOMA : Jurnal Sains Ekonomi Dan Edukasi, 2(8), 2040–2059. https://doi.org/10.62335/aksioma.v2i8.1718
Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (12th ed.). Pearson Education.
Mohamed, E.-S., Khaoula, E., Idriss, O., Meryam, E.-A., & Mounir, B. (2025). The Impact of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the MENA region using Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Ecohumanism, 3(8). https://doi.org/10.62754/joe.v3i8.5848
Moradi, M., Appolloni, A., Zimon, G., Tarighi, H., & Kamali, M. (2021a). Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Price Crash Risk: Do Managers Withhold Bad News in the Crisis-Ridden Iran Market? Sustainability, 13(7), 3688. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073688
Moradi, M., Appolloni, A., Zimon, G., Tarighi, H., & Kamali, M. (2021b). Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Price Crash Risk: Do Managers Withhold Bad News in the Crisis-Ridden Iran Market? Sustainability, 13(7), 3688. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13073688
Precious, W. A. (2020). The effect of monetary policy and inflation on the exchange rate: A case study of Ghana. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 12(4), 151–163. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2020.1076
Salvatore, Dominick. (2016). International economics. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Sanusi, K. A. (2020). Oil prices asymmetric and exchange rate volatility: Case of oil-exporting emerging countries. Journal of International Studies, 13(4), 101–109. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2020/13-4/7
Sari, D., & Nugroho, F. (2024). Peran Harga Energi dalam Menunjang Stabilitas Nilai Tukar Rupiah. Jurnal Ekonomi Energi Dan Lingkungan, 9(1), 56–67.
Tamonsang, M., & Arochman, M. (2020). ANALISIS PENERAPAN MODEL PURCHASING POWER PARITY UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP US DOLLAR (Periode Januari 2016 – Desember 2018). Jurnal GeoEkonomi, 11(2), 157–163. https://doi.org/10.36277/geoekonomi.v11i2.130
Warjiyo, P. (2015). Indonesia: Global Spillover and Policy Response. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/Warjiyo-AEPC-2015.pdf
Diterbitkan
Cara Mengutip
Terbitan
Bagian
Lisensi
Hak Cipta (c) 2026 Septi Nurmalita, Eka Septariana Puspa, Surya Anugrah, Windy Permata Suyono, Deas Shaqilla Putri
Artikel ini berlisensiCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Jurnal Budget is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://ejurnal.dpr.go.id/index.php/jurnalbudget/index.
Pernyataan Etika
